尝试用python解概率题，并祝大小朋友儿童节快乐

article/2025/7/7 1:05:10

实题操作

1. 三个人独立地去破译一份密码，每人能独立译出这份密码的概率分别为1/5， 1/3， 1/4。则这份密码被译出的概率为（3/5）。

def success():p = 1/5,1/3,1/4t = 1for i in p:t *= 1-ireturn 1-tprint(f'成功概率：{success():.3f}')

2. 甲、乙、丙三人向同一飞机射击，假设他们的命中率都是0.4；又若只有一人命中时，飞机坠毁的概率为 0.2；恰有两人命中时，飞机坠毁的概率为 0.6；若三人同时命中，飞机必坠毁。求飞机坠毁的概率为（202/625）。

p1 = [1-0.4,0.4]        # 不中和击种的概率
p2 = [0,0.2,0.6,1.0]    # 不同人数击中的坠机概率
p0 = 0                  # 初始总概率for i in range(2):for j in range(2):for k in range(2):t = p1[i] * p1[j] * p1[k] * p2[i+j+k]p0 += tprint(f'{i} {j} {k} : {p1[i]} * {p1[j]} * {p1[k]} * {p2[i+j+k]:.1f} = {t:.4f}')import fractions 
print(f'\nTotal : {fractions.Fraction(str(0.3232))}')'''
0 0 0 : 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.0 = 0.0000
0 0 1 : 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.4 * 0.2 = 0.0288
0 1 0 : 0.6 * 0.4 * 0.6 * 0.2 = 0.0288
0 1 1 : 0.6 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.6 = 0.0576
1 0 0 : 0.4 * 0.6 * 0.6 * 0.2 = 0.0288
1 0 1 : 0.4 * 0.6 * 0.4 * 0.6 = 0.0576
1 1 0 : 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.0576
1 1 1 : 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 1.0 = 0.0640Total : 202/625
'''

3. 甲、乙、丙三人向同一飞机射击，假设他们的命中率分别是：0.4, 0.5, 0.7；又若只有一人命中时，飞机坠毁的概率为 0.2；恰有两人命中时，飞机坠毁的概率为 0.6；若三人同时命中，飞机必坠毁。求飞机坠毁的概率为（229/500）。

继上题，只是3人的命中率不同；代码稍作修改即可：

p1 = [[1-0.4,0.4],[1-0.5,0.5],[1-0.7,0.7]]
p2 = [0,0.2,0.6,1.0]    # 不同人数击中的坠机概率
p0 = 0                  # 初始总概率for i in range(2):for j in range(2):for k in range(2):t = p1[0][i] * p1[1][j] * p1[2][k] * p2[i+j+k]p0 += tprint(f'{i} {j} {k} : {p1[0][i]:.1f} * {p1[1][j]:.1f} * {p1[2][k]:.1f} * {p2[i+j+k]:.1f} = {t:.4f}')import fractions 
print(f'\nTotal : {fractions.Fraction(str(round(p0,5)))}')'''
0 0 0 : 0.6 * 0.5 * 0.3 * 0.0 = 0.0000
0 0 1 : 0.6 * 0.5 * 0.7 * 0.2 = 0.0420
0 1 0 : 0.6 * 0.5 * 0.3 * 0.2 = 0.0180
0 1 1 : 0.6 * 0.5 * 0.7 * 0.6 = 0.1260
1 0 0 : 0.4 * 0.5 * 0.3 * 0.2 = 0.0120
1 0 1 : 0.4 * 0.5 * 0.7 * 0.6 = 0.0840
1 1 0 : 0.4 * 0.5 * 0.3 * 0.6 = 0.0360
1 1 1 : 0.4 * 0.5 * 0.7 * 1.0 = 0.1400Total : 229/500
'''

实用模块之类方法函数

小数转分数（以下基本是为了凑字数，不喜勿喷忽略即可）

fractions.Fraction

| Examples
| --------
|
| >>> Fraction(10, -8)
| Fraction(-5, 4)
| >>> Fraction(Fraction(1, 7), 5)
| Fraction(1, 35)
| >>> Fraction(Fraction(1, 7), Fraction(2, 3))
| Fraction(3, 14)
| >>> Fraction('314')
| Fraction(314, 1)
| >>> Fraction('-35/4')
| Fraction(-35, 4)
| >>> Fraction('3.1415') # conversion from numeric string
| Fraction(6283, 2000)
| >>> Fraction('-47e-2') # string may include a decimal exponent
| Fraction(-47, 100)
| >>> Fraction(1.47) # direct construction from float (exact conversion)
| Fraction(6620291452234629, 4503599627370496)
| >>> Fraction(2.25)
| Fraction(9, 4)
| >>> Fraction(Decimal('1.47'))
| Fraction(147, 100)
| >>> Fraction('8.125')
| Fraction(65, 8)
| >>> print(Fraction('8.125'))
| 65/8
| >>> print(Fraction(0.125))
| 1/8

另外解决概率题经常要用到排列、组合函数：

itertools.combinations

Help on class combinations in module itertools:

class combinations(builtins.object)
| combinations(iterable, r)
|
| Return successive r-length combinations of elements in the iterable.
|
| combinations(range(4), 3) --> (0,1,2), (0,1,3), (0,2,3), (1,2,3)
|
| Methods defined here:
|
| __getattribute__(self, name, /)
| Return getattr(self, name).
|
| __iter__(self, /)
| Implement iter(self).
|
| __next__(self, /)
| Implement next(self).
|
| __reduce__(...)
| Return state information for pickling.
|
| __setstate__(...)
| Set state information for unpickling.
|
| __sizeof__(...)
| Returns size in memory, in bytes.
|
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------
| Static methods defined here:
|
| __new__(*args, **kwargs) from builtins.type
| Create and return a new object. See help(type) for accurate signature.

itertools.permutations

Help on class permutations in module itertools:

class permutations(builtins.object)
| permutations(iterable, r=None)
|
| Return successive r-length permutations of elements in the iterable.
|
| permutations(range(3), 2) --> (0,1), (0,2), (1,0), (1,2), (2,0), (2,1)
|
| Methods defined here:
|
| __getattribute__(self, name, /)
| Return getattr(self, name).
|
| __iter__(self, /)
| Implement iter(self).
|
| __next__(self, /)
| Implement next(self).
|
| __reduce__(...)
| Return state information for pickling.
|
| __setstate__(...)
| Set state information for unpickling.
|
| __sizeof__(...)
| Returns size in memory, in bytes.
|
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------
| Static methods defined here:
|
| __new__(*args, **kwargs) from builtins.type
| Create and return a new object. See help(type) for accurate signature.

还有一个可以取重复值的组合公式，知道的比较少：

tertools.combinations_with_replacement

Help on class combinations_with_replacement in module itertools:

class combinations_with_replacement(builtins.object)
| combinations_with_replacement(iterable, r)
|
| Return successive r-length combinations of elements in the iterable allowing individual elements to have successive repeats.
|
| combinations_with_replacement('ABC', 2) --> AA AB AC BB BC CC"
|
| Methods defined here:
|
| __getattribute__(self, name, /)
| Return getattr(self, name).
|
| __iter__(self, /)
| Implement iter(self).
|
| __next__(self, /)
| Implement next(self).
|
| __reduce__(...)
| Return state information for pickling.
|
| __setstate__(...)
| Set state information for unpickling.
|
| __sizeof__(...)
| Returns size in memory, in bytes.
|
| ----------------------------------------------------------------------
| Static methods defined here:
|
| __new__(*args, **kwargs) from builtins.type
| Create and return a new object. See help(type) for accurate signature.